On September 17, the European Business Association held its traditional event at the start of the new business season — Global Outlook: Fostering Unity. The necessity of uniting the efforts of business, the government, society, and international partners is now crucial to maintaining the resilience of our country in the face of the challenges of full-scale war. This sentiment resonated in the speeches of many speakers, including company leaders and heads of government agencies. Below, we summarize the key points and most interesting insights from the speakers at this year’s Global Outlook.
While opening the event, Tiberiu Dima, CEO of BASF Ukraine and EBA President, welcomed all members and expressed gratitude to the Armed Forces of Ukraine for enabling such meetings to occur in peaceful Kyiv. “We all face numerous challenges, but we continue running our businesses. Perhaps the most difficult part is that we don’t know when life will return to normal. However, the Ukrainian people and businesses in Ukraine demonstrate legendary resilience. In the face of uncertainty, we must unite, find common ground, and join forces. We have no choice but to keep going and do everything we can to win this war,” emphasized Tiberiu Dima.
“A large team is working today to ensure we stand strong.” In a dialogue with Oleksandr Kamyshin, Advisor to the President of Ukraine for Strategic Affairs, we discussed the state and potential of Ukraine’s strategic industrial sectors, particularly the defense industry. Oleksandr Kamyshin highlighted that Ukraine’s defense sector has developed industrial capabilities over the past years. In his view, Ukraine possesses conventional weapons that could become global bestsellers. In addition, Ukrainian manufacturers are advancing defense tech and creating new classes of weapons. “We have proven that we can manufacture at sufficient volumes; now, the pressing question is how to realize this capability, i.e., finance production and fill orders for companies.”
In this, we rely on the support of international partners. This spring, Ukraine launched the “Zbroiari” [Armourers] initiative, calling on our partners to help contract Ukrainian manufacturers. Currently, contracts under this program amount to $675 million, which is about 10% of Ukraine’s spending on local defense product procurement. Mr. Kamyshin and his team are communicating externally that by developing Ukrainian capabilities, the EU and NATO will gain a strong partner for producing defense goods that will complement rather than compete with Western defense inventories in the future. After the war, Mr. Kamyshin is confident that Ukraine’s products will be in demand on export markets, but for now, we must find ways to support Ukrainian manufacturers — either through contracts or by allowing them to export. “We must use every tool available to become the European Israel,” Kamyshin concluded.
Andriy Pyshnyy, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, gave a positive assessment of the banking system’s condition. “It is good news that gives hope for the effectiveness of the processes launched by the National Bank. Business lending has been growing for over a year. The net hryvnia corporate credit portfolio in banks has increased by more than 10% since the start of the full-scale war and now exceeds pre-war levels. The interest rate on business loans has decreased to pre-COVID levels in 2019.”
Mr. Pyshnyy also noted that an important indicator of the system’s readiness to bolster economic support for him was the collaboration of 20 large banks to finance the recovery of the energy sector. Since the beginning of June, banks have approved applications for UAH 7 billion and financed projects with a capacity exceeding 100 MW. Moreover, there is a positive trend of renewed competition in banks’ lending proposals.
International financial assistance and mobilization of domestic resources remain crucial for maintaining macro-financial stability. Specifically, the National Bank supports increasing taxes for non-banking financial institutions from 18% to 25% to avoid tax arbitration. At the same time, the National Bank does not support additional taxation on banks and believes that the potential of the banking system can be more effectively used to support Ukraine’s economic recovery and further increase government bond market engagement.
“We can expand the channel for covering the budget deficit without resorting to emissions and leverage the domestic debt market’s capabilities. The consequences of full-scale war for public finances are unprecedented, but overcoming them is possible only with comprehensive solutions, using a mix of policies.”
“Energy market reform is critical.” Today, Naftogaz Group unites companies engaged in all processes — oil and gas, heat and electricity, extraction, transit, the largest underground gas storage facilities in Europe, and gas distribution. Naftogaz extracts oil, transports it, has oil product supplies and production, thermal power plants, and alternative energy — solar and wind generation. Oleksiy Chernyshov, CEO of Naftogaz, noted that all these assets have been under constant attack since the first day of the full-scale war. “Our task is to ensure the sustainable provision of resources to Ukrainians. I believe that overall we are succeeding, despite such challenges and difficult conditions,” said Mr. Chernyshov.
Oleksiy Chernyshov also mentioned that today’s challenges for business are extreme. Despite this, Naftogaz Group has increased gas production in 2023, paid more than UAH 14 billion in dividends to the state, and all the group’s enterprises have improved their financial results and are profitable. Gas remains a stable source of energy, and companies are enhancing their ability to respond to challenges, preparing for crises, and have a diversified storage and transportation system while calling for understanding in facing the challenges.
During the war, the main priority is oil and gas. In the post-war period, Mr. Chernyshov believes the share of alternative energy will develop. However, for this, energy market liberalization is necessary — more than 80% of the energy sector is state-owned, which limits competition. The end of the war alone will not be enough to make Ukraine an attractive investment destination. Competition must be supported, deregulation implemented, and reforms pursued. Mr. Chernyshov believes Ukraine could become a natural gas exporter in the future, and not when it increases production, but when it liberalizes the market and frees up part of the resource for export. Therefore, energy market reform is very important.
During the business panel, top managers from various sectors shared their views on running their businesses, the entrepreneurial environment, challenges, and opportunities in 2025.
Tomas Fiala, CEO of Dragon Capital, noted that Ukraine’s GDP could grow by 4% by the end of 2024. Inflation is expected to be around 9%. The devaluation of the hryvnia will continue next year but will be controlled and moderate, consistent with business expectations and the state budget assumptions. The main challenges remain the budget deficit, which will require around $38 billion in assistance from partners next year, as well as investments in economic recovery. Mr. Fiala emphasized that international partners, particularly the IMF and the EU, have confirmed about $15 billion in budget aid for 2025. Frozen Russian assets and the revenues from them should also become a significant source of budget financing and weapons procurement, including Ukrainian-made products.
Oleksandr Komarov, President of Kyivstar, noted that energy stability is a key challenge to ensuring the reliability of telecommunications networks. The company plans to enhance network resilience for up to 4 hours of autonomous operation, but these measures require significant investments and operational costs. The main challenges remain the vulnerable energy infrastructure and restoring facilities on the frontlines.
Mauro Longobardo, CEO of ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, highlighted that the cost of electricity for industrial producers in Ukraine is twice that in some European countries, partly due to regulatory requirements for Ukrainian producers to purchase no less than 80% of imported electricity to ensure stable energy supplies. As a result, Ukrainian companies, particularly steel and iron ore producers, are forced to cut production. Despite this, enterprises continue to function, providing tax revenues to the state budget.
Natalia Gurina, Chief Risk Officer at Raiffeisen Bank, mentioned that despite all possible stress tests and scenarios, the reality of war brings new challenges. Specifically, the risk of a prolonged energy crisis is pushing for new solutions, such as installing solar panels and inverters in bank branches. Mobilization and the reduction of the workforce are becoming significant challenges. However, there is no critical shortage of personnel in the banking system, though finding new employees is becoming more difficult. Despite numerous crises before the full-scale war, Ukraine’s banking system remains stable. Communication and cooperation between banks have improved, helping to counter challenges.
The focus remains on three areas: people — supporting employees, veterans, from mental to professional support, clients, children, and those affected by the aggressor’s actions, supporting Ukraine’s economy through lending, and adapting to the EU’s regulatory requirements.
Sergiy Yevtushenko, CEO of UDP Renewables, and co-founder of Unit City, also spoke about active participation in negotiations with the EU. Moreover, Unit City continues to attract investors and companies even during the war and is working on enhancing efficiency and community engagement. In 2025, further development of sports and innovation clusters is planned.
SHERP is a completely Ukrainian company that produces innovative vehicles. The main markets are the USA and Canada. SHERP also collaborates with the UN, especially in Africa, where it replaces helicopters for cargo deliveries. During the war, the company built a plant in Turkey and India to maintain contracts and signed new ones with the Indian Army. SHERP is also developing robotic systems. SHERP is used by both the State Emergency Service and the Defense Forces. The main challenges a shortage of engineering personnel, power outages due to shelling, and high costs of generation during outages, as reported by Oleksandr Biletskyi, CEO of SHERP.
The main threat to the energy system is new missile strikes and drone attacks. A reliable defense of Ukraine’s energy system should include missile defense and drones. A key factor in this matter is the reliable protection of Ukrainian airspace, noted DTEK’s Executive Director, Dmytro Sakharuk.
Foreign assistance remains limited, so the company is preparing for the upcoming winter on its own. This year, DTEK is investing nearly UAH 4 billion of its own funds into restoring destroyed and damaged thermal power plants. In addition to repairs, DTEK is focusing on the development of green energy and energy storage systems. Therefore, negotiations are underway with banks regarding the financing of new projects that will help strengthen Ukraine’s energy security. We are grateful to our speakers, participants, and event partners for their support!
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