A little over half of the companies, specifically 53%, predict positive growth for their businesses in 2025. Last year, 58% of executives were optimistic about business growth. Meanwhile, one-third of respondents (33%) expect to maintain business performance at the same level as the previous year, and 14% forecast negative dynamics (compared to 13% last year).
These are the results of the Association’s “Business Forecast for 2025” survey.
The average USD exchange rate that executives of the EBA member companies are incorporating into their budgets for the upcoming 2025 year is 44 UAH per dollar. For comparison, in 2024, businesses projected a rate of 41 UAH/$, and in 2023 – 43 UAH/$.
The financial forecast for 2025 in UAH are almost identical to those of the previous period. The majority of executives, 72%, expect revenue growth in UAH, while only 15% anticipate a decline. A 35% growth rate is projected by 35% of directors, 11-20% growth by 23%, and more than 21% by 14% of respondents.
Meanwhile, 46% expect revenue growth in volumes, and 43% in USD. A revenue decline in volumes is forecasted by 21%, and 27% anticipate a decrease in USD.
Compared to previous years, companies’ investment intentions have become more restrained. The number of companies planning new large-scale investment projects in 2025 has dropped to 16%. By comparison, 26% of companies planned large projects in 2024 and 19% in 2023. However, the average cost of planned projects has increased, averaging $9 million in 2025 ($8 million in 2024 and $3 million in 2023).
The number of companies planning to invest in social initiatives has slightly decreased, from 65% in 2024 to 59% in 2025. On average, businesses plan to allocate 6% of their revenue to such projects. In 2024 and 2023, these figures were 6% and 8%, respectively.
The top three priorities for the government, according to businesses, are combating corruption, the need for judicial reform and the establishment of the rule of law, ensuring macroeconomic stability, as well as implementing tax and customs reforms.
“In the third year of the full-scale war, the cautious assessments and forecast of businesses are understandable. Uncertainty breeds insecurity. Despite this, the fact that the majority of businesses still expect growth adds some optimism. At the same time, we see a certain "freezing" of investment plans, which is a rather alarming signal that needs to be addressed. While we may not have control over certain factors, such as security, the internal situation and policy improvements are in our own hands”, commented Anna Derevyanko, EBA Executive Director and GB4U Co-Founder.
Reference:
The “Business Forecast for 2025” survey involved 92 executives from member companies of the European Business Association. The survey was conducted from August 6 to 29, 2024. The “Business Forecast” survey has been conducted by the Association for nine consecutive years.
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