This week European Business Association together with Global Business for Ukraine conducted an event dedicated to discussing key geopolitical events, election results in influential countries, and their direct impact on Ukraine – as we live during not an easy time, it’s important to know trends that might impact the situation.
Among the speakers were – Kurt Volker former US Ambassador to NATO and special representative to the US State Department for Ukraine in 2017-2019, Kerstin Duhme Senior Managing Director FTI Consulting, Tymofiy Mylovanov President of Kyiv School of Economics.
Hence, Mr Kurt Volker mentioned that the NATO Summit in Washington showed a lot of unity, nevertheless, there are questions about US future leadership. However, he doesn’t believe that if Trump takes President’s position – support for Ukraine will be stopped (Kurt Volker thinks he’ll try to show that Ukraine will have whatever is needed, but, he doesn’t know the truth – this is just a consideration). Sure, russia, Iran, Israel, China, India etc – will try to figure out if there are any changes in policy with the new President’s administration. Certainly, everyone will look for more protection. So, the period between now and January is of high risk. Still, the support for Ukraine will continue, however, some unpredictability can take place. The discussion regarding Ukraine he finalized with words that regarding Ukraine the US needs activities with clear purpose. As well as all other actions\events around the world – as even this year we had a series of summits – in Germany, Switzerland etc but no great lips forward. So, more needs to be done than was accomplished.
Kerstin Duhme explained that this week is important for the European direction, however, elections weren’t as bad as expected. Mostly, Pro Ukraine stand continues. Roberta Metsola was re-elected as President of the European Parliament, and she is a supporter of Ukraine. Yes, France, Germany – are major losers and before they were seen as drivers of the EU. Besides, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban created a new political group (it has become the 3rd largest group) and Austrian elections are upcoming – they are close to Orban’s course; however, we’ll continue to watch how the situation evolves. The fact that Europe needs to be stable is indisputable. Regarding the picture of Ukraine in 2025 she mentioned that for the EU the accession of Ukraine is key. However, we as a country need to take corruption very seriously – as transparency is a key thing in Europe!
Tymofiy Mylovanov focused on three pillars – military, economy, politics, and geopolitics. He mentioned that regardless of who will be the US President there will be uncertainty. Yes, Ukraine must be given guarantees (from NATO as well) as the country needs stable equilibrium – this is needed for the EU as well as for the US, as without this no stability will be in the world. However, he doesn’t think that if Trump becomes the President, he’ll sell Ukraine. Regarding the economy, Mr Mylovanov mentioned that if we take half of men from the country – the economy will collapse. Yes, we are far from this situation – but we need to take this fact into account. Besides, the outcome of the war is determined by people, so, sometimes we are too overwhelmed with what is going on in Berlin, London, Washington etc and need to take care of people more. At the end he mentioned that it seems that there is a cultural difference between actual war in Ukraine and NATO – yes, they can benefit and learn from each other (NATO – speed, Ukraine – strategy, communication, coordination etc) but need to learn how to cooperate effectively with each other.
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