On February 5, GB4U together with the European Business Association held its traditional Global Outlook: Enduring Change event, an open discussion between business leaders and high-ranking officials on the challenges and prospects of 2025.
Among the key speakers were Herman Halushchenko, Minister of Energy of Ukraine, and Andriy Pyshnyy, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, who shared their insights on the development of the energy sector and macroeconomic forecasts.
Herman Halushchenko, Minister of Energy of Ukraine, highlighted that despite daily attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the energy system has endured thanks to the professionalism and dedication of specialists. Although around 9 GW of generation capacity has been disabled, Ukrainian energy workers continue to find innovative solutions, operate under extremely hazardous conditions, and rapidly restore damaged facilities.
The Minister emphasised that making precise forecasts regarding the future state of the energy system is challenging, as the situation depends on the intensity of attacks. However, he is confident that Ukraine’s energy system will endure and ensure a stable electricity supply.
Ukraine is developing promising areas of cooperation with international partners, particularly with the United States and the EU in the field of nuclear energy. Ukrainian nuclear specialists are highly skilled professionals with experience in operating nuclear reactors under extreme conditions. Several projects have already been implemented in Ukraine in collaboration with Westinghouse, including nuclear fuel production and the construction of storage facilities. This provides the country with significant opportunities for integration into the European nuclear energy market.
Andriy Pyshnyу, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, stated that according to NBU estimates, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 3.4%, slightly below the expected figure. This was due to poor harvests, weaker external demand, as well as an increase in the intensity of hostilities and a shortage of electricity caused by airstrikes on the country’s energy system.
Inflation in the second half of 2024 accelerated as expected, but exceeded the NBU’s forecast, reaching 12%. To curb inflation, the NBU raised its discount rate by 1.5 percentage points in December and January. Inflation is expected to continue rising at the beginning of 2025, but by mid-year, a downward trend should begin. By the end of 2025, the NBU expects inflation to slow to 8.4%, with a further decrease to 5% in 2026.
The war remains a key factor of uncertainty affecting all macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, energy supply problems caused by Russian attacks continue to pressure businesses, forcing them to seek alternative energy sources and incur additional costs, while population outflows reduce the labour force and create further barriers to economic recovery.
The NBU Governor also outlined key aspects of monetary policy and the situation on the foreign exchange market. The NBU’s measures are aimed at gradually bringing inflation back to the target of 5%, maintaining control over expectations, and ensuring a stable situation on the foreign exchange market through a managed flexible exchange rate.
By the end of 2024, Ukraine’s international reserves had reached USD 43.8 billion, which is an important factor for financial stability. In addition, Ukraine successfully completed the sixth review of its programme with the International Monetary Fund, maintaining the trust of international partners and ensuring stable financing.
Ukraine has managed to secure necessary assurances from partners regarding timely and regular financing, which is crucial for covering the budget deficit. Particular attention was given to the new Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loans mechanism from G7 countries, which has opened opportunities for obtaining funds from the proceeds of immobilised Russian assets.
Andriy Pyshnyу emphasised that the NBU continues its efforts to provide non-emission financing for the budget, which will help maintain macroeconomic stability.
The priority remains strengthening the financial system and actively involving international partners in the country’s recovery process. The NBU plans further steps to develop capital markets and implement a war risk insurance system, which will facilitate attracting private investors, supporting businesses, and creating conditions for sustainable development.
A business panel also took place, dedicated to forecasts and challenges for Ukrainian businesses in 2025. The participants of the expert discussion addressed macroeconomic prospects, risks, and opportunities across various sectors of the economy, the labour market situation, as well as the impact of technology on the business climate and societal development.
Volodymyr Mudryі, Chairman of the Board of OTP Bank, noted that the banking sector is showing growth, meeting the investment needs of businesses. Volodymyr emphasised that global changes could create additional opportunities for greater growth in 2025 than even the NBU forecast suggests. He pointed out that in the previous year, imports of food products increased, which serves as an important signal for Ukrainian entrepreneurs – there is a gap in the Ukrainian market that can be filled with domestic products. The government’s business stimulation programmes indicate that the state views domestic consumption as a priority.
Oleksiy Dubrevskyу, CEO of Boryspil Airport, shared his hopes for 2025 from the perspective of the aviation industry. When asked about the potential reopening of the airport, he responded that it all depends on the decision of the aviation regulator regarding the reopening of airspace, which is directly linked to military risks. Currently, the airport is working alongside the government and international partners to develop security infrastructure.
Oleksandr Komarov, CEO of Kyivstar, compared planning for 2025 to that of 2022 due to the large number of possible scenarios for the development of events. He shared that in 2025, the company will focus on supporting employees, ensuring network resilience, investing, implementing new services, and developing offerings.
Yuriy Atanasov, CEO of Centravis Production Ukraine PRJSC, shared insights on how business and production operate in frontline zones, as well as the decisions that help manage risks. He emphasized that the main motivation for him to move forward is his employees. The biggest challenge for 2025, according to Yuriy, is maintaining profitability.
Tetiana Lukyniuk, Country Director of Google Ukraine, noted that the IT industry has shown resilience during the war, and as a result, this market, particularly the E-commerce sector, continues to develop actively. According to Tetiana, there is significant interest in artificial intelligence technologies in Ukraine.
Alessandro Zanelli, CEO of Nestlé in Ukraine, discussed the needs of the FMCG sector. He expects at least a five percent increase in consumption volumes in 2025 but also anticipates inflation growth. In 2025, the company plans to invest around 9.5 billion UAH in product promotion and innovations at existing factories, as well as open a new, fourth factory in Ukraine.
Panel participants emphasized the importance of government support, particularly in ensuring a transparent mobilization process, infrastructure development, and creating a favourable business climate. Overall, entrepreneurs have an optimistic outlook for business growth in 2025.
We are grateful to our event partner OTP Bank and all participants and speakers for the meeting!
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